VMware Cloud Foundation / vSphere: VM Platform Ledger 2026 Scorecard

Part of the VM Platform Ledger (edition 2026-09-30). How the scores work: methodology.

Snapshot

Type: product
Owner: Broadcom (since Nov 2023)
Engine: ESX (own hypervisor)
Licence: Subscription only, per core, sold as VCF or VVF bundles
Latest release: VCF 9.1.1, 2026-09-03
Next milestone: vSphere Standard refresh (details promised 13 to 14 Oct 2026); AI Factory; vSAN S3 GA (no date)
Archetype: Rent extractor with a reference product
Evidence grade: B. Release dates are grade A (Broadcom build-number pages). Most 2015 to 2022 feature headlines were not re-opened, so history scores are grade C. Today's scores are A/B.

Scorecard

Dimension	Score	Direction
Capability today	93.1 / 100	higher is better
Momentum since end of 2022	+2.6 points (2015 to 2022: +20.3)	higher is better
Credibility	14.5 / 25	higher is better
Commercial risk	23 / 25	lower is better
Technical lock-in	15.5 / 25	lower is better
Integrator fit	13.5 / 20	higher is better
AI leverage	15.5 / 20	higher is better
Ledger Index	63.9 / 100	balanced weights; see the methodology

Capability by domain, 2015 to today

Scores 0 to 5 against fixed anchors; total is weighted to 100.

Domain (weight)	2015	2019	2022	Today
Compute core (15)	4.5	5	5	5
Storage (12)	4	4.5	5	4.5
Networking / SDN (10)	4.5	5	5	5
Data protection / DR (12)	4.5	4.5	4.5	5
Migration-in (8)	3	2.5	2.5	3
GPU / AI (10)	2.5	4	4.5	5
Kubernetes (8)	0.5	2	4	4.5
Security / confidential (8)	2	4	4.5	5
Fleet / multi-site (9)	3.5	4	4.5	4.5
Automation / ecosystem (8)	4.5	5	5	4.5
Total / 100	70.2	83.4	90.5	93.1

Year by year: 2015: 70.2 · 2016: 74.6 · 2017: 74.6 · 2018: 79.1 · 2019: 83.4 · 2020: 87.4 · 2021: 88.4 · 2022: 90.5 · 2023: 90.5 · 2024: 93.5 · 2025: 93.1 · 2026: 93.1

What moved the score

Year	Domain	Change	Points	Trigger
2016	Automation / ecosystem	4.5 → 5	+0.8	vSphere 6.5: REST API, HTML5 client
2016	Security / confidential	2 → 3.5	+2.4	vSphere 6.5: VM encryption, encrypted vMotion, Secure Boot
2016	Storage	4 → 4.5	+1.2	vSAN 6.2: deduplication, compression, erasure coding
2018	Compute core	4.5 → 5	+1.5	vSphere 6.7: Quick Boot, per-VM EVC, 8-vCPU Fault Tolerance
2018	GPU / AI	2.5 → 4	+3.0	vSphere 6.7 U1: vMotion of vGPU VMs (industry first)
2018	Migration-in	3 → 2.5	-0.8	Converter updates stop
2018	Security / confidential	3.5 → 4	+0.8	vSphere 6.7: vTPM 2.0, virtualization-based security
2019	Fleet / multi-site	3.5 → 4	+0.9	VCF 3.9 multi-instance management
2019	Kubernetes	0.5 → 2	+2.4	vSphere 6.7 U3: Cloud Native Storage (CSI)
2019	Networking / SDN	4.5 → 5	+1.0	NSX-T 2.4/2.5: policy API, NSX Intelligence
2020	Kubernetes	2 → 4	+3.2	vSphere 7: Kubernetes in vCenter (Tanzu)
2020	Security / confidential	4 → 4.5	+0.8	vSphere 7.0 U1: AMD SEV-ES
2021	GPU / AI	4 → 4.5	+1.0	vSphere 7.0 U2: NVIDIA AI Enterprise
2022	Fleet / multi-site	4 → 4.5	+0.9	vSphere 8: lifecycle for 1,000 hosts; VCF 4.5 remote clusters
2022	Storage	4.5 → 5	+1.2	vSAN 8 Express Storage Architecture; NVMe-oF
2024	Data protection / DR	4.5 → 5	+1.2	vSphere 8.0 U3: vSAN Data Protection; Live Recovery
2024	GPU / AI	4.5 → 5	+1.0	Private AI Foundation with NVIDIA GA
2024	Migration-in	2.5 → 3	+0.8	VCF Import tool (5.2); Converter revived
2025	Automation / ecosystem	5 → 4.5	-0.8	VCF 9.0: SDKs and local plug-ins removed; Cloud Director on its last line
2025	Kubernetes	4 → 4.5	+0.8	VCF 9: vSphere Kubernetes Service, Argo CD
2025	Security / confidential	4.5 → 5	+0.8	vSphere 9.0: AMD SEV-SNP and Intel TDX
2025	Storage	5 → 4.5	-1.2	VCF 9.0: vVols deprecated; Storage I/O Control, Storage DRS I/O balancing, NPIV removed

Direction, 2023 to 2026

Each release item carries one theme and one driver (V vision, C customer need, M market window, U upstream, P portfolio).

Date	Item	Theme	Driver
2023-09	vSAN Max disaggregated storage	D2 Storage	V
2023-09	vSphere 8.0 U2: DRS and vMotion tuning for vGPU VMs	D6 AI/GPU infrastructure	C
2023-11	VCF 5.1: vSAN ESA inside VCF	D2 Storage	P
2023-12	End of perpetual licences; portfolio cut to VCF and VVF	D12 Packaging	P
2024-01	vSphere+, vSAN+, NSX+ cloud services ended	D12 Packaging	P
2024-02	Free ESXi discontinued	D12 Packaging	P
2024-05	Private AI Foundation with NVIDIA GA	D6 AI/GPU infrastructure	V
2024-07	VCF 5.2: Import tool for existing vSphere estates	D5 Migration-in	P
2025-04	Free ESXi returns	D12 Packaging	C
2025-06	VCF 9.0: NVMe memory tiering	D1 Core compute	C
2025-06	VCF 9.0: SEV-SNP and TDX confidential VMs	D9 Security	C
2025-06	VCF 9.0: native VPCs in vCenter	D3 Networking	V
2025-06	VCF 9.0: single platform, fleet operations console	D10 Fleet/edge	P
2025-06	VCF 9.0: vVols deprecated, storage features removed	D2 Storage	P
2025-11	Private AI Services included in VCF subscription	D6 AI/GPU infrastructure	P
2026-05	VCF 9.1: AMD MI350, BlueField-3, GPU-to-GPU RDMA	D6 AI/GPU infrastructure	V
2026-05	VCF 9.1: ESX live patch, vCenter quick patch	D1 Core compute	C
2026-05	VCF 9.1: EVPN with Arista, Cisco, SONiC	D3 Networking	C
2026-08	Public VDDK download removed	D11 Ecosystem openness	P
2026-09	Refreshed vSphere Standard promised	D12 Packaging	C
2026-09	VCF 9.1.1: AI Assistant for VCF (tech preview, read-only)	D7 AI-assisted ops	V
2026-09	VMware AI Factory announced	D6 AI/GPU infrastructure	V
2026-09	vSAN native S3 object storage (tech preview)	D2 Storage	V

Centre of gravity: AI/GPU infrastructure (5), Packaging (5), Storage (4)
Blind spots (no items): Data protection, Kubernetes
Driver mix: Vision 30%, Customer need 30%, Market window 0%, Upstream 0%, Portfolio 39%
Idea-to-need index: 0.5 (0 = demand-pulled, 1 = thesis-pushed)

Credibility: 14.5 / 25

Criterion	Score	Basis
Cadence	3	Published model (minor every ~9 months); 9.1 arrived after ~11
Roadmap transparency	2	No roadmap; direction at Explore; lifecycle matrix behind login
Say-do	3	14 of 20 checkable announcements shipped (70%); 3 dropped by the new owner; native S3 and the VCF AI assistant still preview after 12+ months
Velocity	4	Several substantive capabilities per release
Lifecycle stability	2.5	Long 6+1 support, but heavy removals in 9.0, hardware dropped then re-admitted, products ended

Commercial risk: 23 / 25 (lower is better)

Criterion	Score	Basis
Price and licence volatility	5	Perpetual ended, free ESXi removed then restored, 72-core minimum announced then withdrawn, bundle pulled in parts of EMEA
Purchase constraints	5	Subscription only, bundles only, 16-core minimum per CPU
Channel and access	5	Invite-only partners, cloud-provider programme cut three times, public VDDK download removed
Owner stability	4	Acquired Nov 2023; repeated reversals; EU antitrust complaint open
Cost of staying supported	4	Late-renewal penalty reported; cease-and-desist letters to perpetual holders; 27 months per minor release

Technical lock-in: 15.5 / 25 (lower is better)

Criterion	Score	Basis
Formats	3	VMDK is widely readable; VMFS and vSAN are not
Export path	3.5	OVF export exists; block-level kit (VDDK) now partner-gated
Stack coupling	3	External storage still allowed; NSX only inside the bundle; vVols deprecated
Hardware / cloud coupling	3	Compatibility list shrinking; licence file refresh every 180 days
Skills and tooling coupling	3	Proprietary APIs and tooling, but the largest skills pool

Integrator fit: 13.5 / 20

Criterion	Score	Basis
Partner programme openness	0.5	Invitation-only; Registered tier retired; European cloud-provider programme closed
Multi-tenancy and self-service	4	VCF Automation tenancy; Cloud Director being retired
API and infrastructure-as-code	4.5	REST APIs, Terraform and Ansible across the stack; some SDKs removed
Skills and certification	4.5	Largest installed skills base; certifications now expire

AI leverage: 15.5 / 20

How the platform uses AI, scored per year like capability. Only GA counts.

Criterion	2019	2022	Today	Latest step
AI workload infrastructure	3	4	5	2026: VCF 9.1: Blackwell, AMD MI350, GPU-to-GPU RDMA across hosts
AI platform stack	0	0	4.5	2026: PAIS 2.1 MCP tool gallery; multi-tenant model sharing (9.1.1)
AI-assisted operations	2.5	3	2.5	2024: Aria SaaS ended by Broadcom; AI Cloud gone
Agent openness	2	2	3.5	2026: MCP tool gallery GA for apps; AgentMinder agent governance (GA per press); no MCP server for operating vCenter

Year by year: 2015: 5.5 · 2016: 6 · 2017: 6.5 · 2018: 7.5 · 2019: 7.5 · 2020: 8.5 · 2021: 9 · 2022: 9 · 2023: 10 · 2024: 11.5 · 2025: 12.5 · 2026: 15.5

AI say-do, 2023 to 2026: 20 AI items announced; 11 GA, 1 still preview, 6 pending, 1 dropped. One more item (Intel Gaudi 2) has no outcome found. The VCF AI assistant has been in preview for over 12 months.

VMware is the strongest of the first eight at running AI workloads and now bundles a private AI platform into VCF at no extra charge. Its own use of AI for operators went backwards after Broadcom ended the SaaS that carried it, and the new assistant is still a read-only preview.

Reading

The product is still the capability reference in seven of ten domains, and engineering delivery since 2023 has been sound. What changed is who the roadmap serves: the largest share of 2023 to 2026 items moves customers into the full bundle or restricts ways out, while the visible investment goes to private AI. For a buyer the question is no longer whether it works but what the next renewal and the next policy change will cost.

Open questions and items to re-score

Entry-level edition: a refreshed vSphere Standard was promised on 2026-09-02 with no SKU, price or date. Re-score Commercial risk after 13 to 14 Oct 2026.
Removal of the public VDDK download (Aug 2026) raises exit cost for every third-party migration tool. Watch whether backup vendors keep access.
No published price list exists; all price figures are partner or press reports.
History feature headlines for 2015 to 2022 need one pass against release notes to lift them from grade C.