Red Hat OpenShift Virtualization: VM Platform Ledger 2026 Scorecard

Part of the VM Platform Ledger (edition 2026-09-30). How the scores work: methodology.

Snapshot

Type: product
Owner: Red Hat (IBM subsidiary since 2019)
Engine: KubeVirt on OpenShift (RHV used oVirt until its end of life)
Licence: Subscription per bare-metal node or core pair; VM-only OpenShift Virtualization Engine per node
Latest release: OpenShift Virtualization 4.22, 2026-06-16; MTV 2.12, 2026-06-16
Next milestone: OpenShift 5 (end 2026 to early 2027, grade B); incremental backup GA; autopilot GA
Archetype: Integrated stack, platform play
Evidence grade: A. Release dates from Red Hat's lifecycle API and release-note sources on GitHub. Pricing is grade B (reseller figures).

Scope of the scores: Capability is scored for Red Hat's VM family: the best generally available state across RHV (to its maintenance end in Aug 2024) and OpenShift Virtualization (GA July 2020). 2015 to 2019 is therefore RHV; risk, lock-in and credibility are scored for OpenShift Virtualization.

Scorecard

Dimension	Score	Direction
Capability today	83.0 / 100	higher is better
Momentum since end of 2022	+9.3 points (2015 to 2022: +25.3)	higher is better
Credibility	18.0 / 25	higher is better
Commercial risk	11.0 / 25	lower is better
Technical lock-in	11.0 / 25	lower is better
Integrator fit	15.5 / 20	higher is better
AI leverage	14.5 / 20	higher is better
Ledger Index	72.0 / 100	balanced weights; see the methodology

Capability by domain, 2015 to today

Scores 0 to 5 against fixed anchors; total is weighted to 100.

Domain (weight)	2015	2019	2022	Today
Compute core (15)	3.5	4	4	4.5
Storage (12)	3.5	4	4	4
Networking / SDN (10)	2.5	3.5	3.5	4
Data protection / DR (12)	2.5	4	4	4
Migration-in (8)	2.5	3	3.5	4.5
GPU / AI (10)	1	3	3	3.5
Kubernetes (8)	0	1	4	5
Security / confidential (8)	2	2	3.5	3.5
Fleet / multi-site (9)	2.5	3	3.5	4.5
Automation / ecosystem (8)	3	3.5	3.5	4
Total / 100	48.4	64.8	73.7	83.0

Year by year: 2015: 48.4 · 2016: 51.4 · 2017: 54.3 · 2018: 63.2 · 2019: 64.8 · 2020: 69.6 · 2021: 72.0 · 2022: 73.7 · 2023: 76.9 · 2024: 76.9 · 2025: 79.4 · 2026: 83.0

What moved the score

Year	Domain	Change	Points	Trigger
2016	Data protection / DR	2.5 → 3	+1.2	Commvault support for RHV
2016	GPU / AI	1 → 1.5	+1.0	RHEV 3.6: PCI device assignment
2016	Migration-in	2.5 → 3	+0.8	RHEV 3.6: VMware import in the admin portal
2017	Automation / ecosystem	3 → 3.5	+0.8	RHV 4.1: Ansible modules
2017	Fleet / multi-site	2.5 → 3	+0.9	RHHI-V for small sites
2017	Storage	3.5 → 4	+1.2	Hyperconverged RHV with Gluster (RHHI-V)
2018	Compute core	3.5 → 4	+1.5	RHV 4.2: High-Performance VM profile; HA via storage leases
2018	Data protection / DR	3 → 4	+2.4	RHV 4.2: site-to-site and stretched DR with Ansible failover
2018	GPU / AI	1.5 → 3	+3.0	RHV 4.2: NVIDIA vGPU
2018	Networking / SDN	2.5 → 3.5	+2.0	RHV 4.2: OVN software-defined networking
2019	Kubernetes	0 → 1	+1.6	Container-native Virtualization preview
2020	Kubernetes	1 → 4	+4.8	OpenShift Virtualization GA: VMs and containers in one control plane
2021	Migration-in	3 → 3.5	+0.8	MTV 2.0: warm migration from vSphere
2021	Security / confidential	2 → 3	+1.6	Secure Boot, vTPM (RHV 4.4), FIPS
2022	Fleet / multi-site	3 → 3.5	+0.9	Single-node and three-node OpenShift; ACM
2022	Security / confidential	3 → 3.5	+0.8	4.11: unprivileged VMs by default
2023	Automation / ecosystem	3.5 → 4	+0.8	Kubernetes API; certified Ansible collection
2023	Kubernetes	4 → 5	+1.6	4.14: hosted control planes on OpenShift Virtualization
2023	Migration-in	3.5 → 4	+0.8	MTV 2.5: OpenStack and OVA sources
2025	Compute core	4 → 4.5	+1.5	4.20: load-aware rebalancing, vNUMA, hotplug of CPU, memory and NICs
2025	Networking / SDN	3.5 → 4	+1.0	4.18: user-defined networks per tenant; BGP in 4.20
2026	Fleet / multi-site	3.5 → 4.5	+1.8	4.21/4.22: cross-cluster live migration GA; two-node with fencing GA
2026	GPU / AI	3 → 3.5	+1.0	4.21: MIG-backed vGPU; Lightspeed assistant in migration and operations
2026	Migration-in	4 → 4.5	+0.8	MTV 2.11/2.12: storage copy offload GA; Hyper-V and EC2 sources in preview

Direction, 2023 to 2026

Each release item carries one theme and one driver (V vision, C customer need, M market window, U upstream, P portfolio).

Date	Item	Theme	Driver
2023-11	4.14: AWS bare metal and ROSA GA	D10 Fleet/edge	P
2023-11	4.14: hosted control planes on OpenShift Virtualization	D8 Kubernetes	V
2023-11	Metro-DR for VMs (preview)	D4 Data protection	C
2024-02	4.15: NIC hotplug, instance types GA	D1 Core compute	U
2024-06	Migration assessment credits and course discounts	D5 Migration-in	M
2024-07	4.16: Metro-DR GA, vCPU hotplug	D4 Data protection	C
2024-10	4.17: memory overcommit and memory hotplug GA	D1 Core compute	C
2024-11	OpenShift Lightspeed assistant (preview)	D7 AI-assisted ops	V
2025-01	OpenShift Virtualization Engine, VM-only subscription	D12 Packaging	M
2025-02	4.18: per-tenant user-defined networks GA	D3 Networking	C
2025-06	4.19: bulk storage migration GA; Oracle Cloud GA	D2 Storage	C
2025-07	MTV 2.9: storage copy offload (preview)	D5 Migration-in	M
2025-10	4.20: load-aware rebalancing, vNUMA, Arm	D1 Core compute	C
2025-11	Azure Red Hat OpenShift virtualization GA	D10 Fleet/edge	P
2026-02	4.21: MIG-backed vGPU GA	D6 AI/GPU infrastructure	C
2026-02	4.21: confidential VMs on IBM Z only	D9 Security	P
2026-02	4.21: cross-cluster live migration GA	D10 Fleet/edge	C
2026-05	Grace Hopper and Blackwell GPU passthrough planned	D6 AI/GPU infrastructure	V
2026-05	MCP server for OpenShift (preview)	D7 AI-assisted ops	V
2026-05	Virtualization platform autopilot (developer preview)	D7 AI-assisted ops	V
2026-06	4.22: 36-month lifecycle	D12 Packaging	C
2026-06	4.22: two-node clusters with fencing GA	D10 Fleet/edge	C
2026-06	MTV 2.12: Hyper-V and EC2 sources, copy offload GA	D5 Migration-in	M
2026-09	First year of subscription waived for VMware leavers	D12 Packaging	M

Centre of gravity: Fleet/edge (4), Core compute (3), Migration-in (3)
Blind spots (no items): Ecosystem openness
Driver mix: Vision 21%, Customer need 42%, Market window 21%, Upstream 4%, Portfolio 12%
Idea-to-need index: 0.25 (0 = demand-pulled, 1 = thesis-pushed)

Credibility: 18.0 / 25

Criterion	Score	Basis
Cadence	4	OpenShift minor every ~4 months on a published lifecycle; virtualization follows within 1 to 5 weeks
Roadmap transparency	3.5	No written roadmap, but quarterly 'What's Next' decks are public and docs source is on GitHub
Say-do	3	13 of 23 forward items shipped (57%), 7 pending, 1 slipped, none dropped; x86 confidential VMs pending 29 months
Velocity	4.5	Several substantive capabilities per release
Lifecycle stability	3	36-month lifecycle with EUS now; but RHV customers were forced onto a different platform

Commercial risk: 11.0 / 25 (lower is better)

Criterion	Score	Basis
Price and licence volatility	2.5	About +10% list rise 2024; new VM-only SKU 2025; metric moved to per-node; RHV ended
Purchase constraints	2.5	Subscription only; VM-only SKU is bare-metal per node and excludes RHEL guest rights
Channel and access	1.5	Open partner programme; docs public; some knowledge base behind login
Owner stability	2	IBM-owned since 2019; back office moved into IBM in 2026
Cost of staying supported	2.5	36 months per release with EUS; OpenShift upgrade pace applies

Technical lock-in: 11.0 / 25 (lower is better)

Criterion	Score	Basis
Formats	1.5	Raw disks on PVCs; KubeVirt YAML is an open schema
Export path	2.5	VM export API exists but VM must be off and there is no qcow2 or outbound migration tool
Stack coupling	3	Supported only on OpenShift; Red Hat's documented DR needs ODF, Ceph and ACM
Hardware / cloud coupling	1.5	Certified x86, Arm, IBM Z and cloud bare metal; no cloud attach required
Skills and tooling coupling	2.5	Needs Kubernetes skills on top of virtualization skills

Integrator fit: 15.5 / 20

Criterion	Score	Basis
Partner programme openness	4	Open programme with a virtualization specialization; service providers per node, no minimums
Multi-tenancy and self-service	3.5	Namespaces, RBAC, quotas and per-tenant networks; no tenant billing
API and infrastructure-as-code	4	Kubernetes API and certified Ansible; no maintained Terraform provider
Skills and certification	4	EX316 certification and a full course track

AI leverage: 14.5 / 20

How the platform uses AI, scored per year like capability. Only GA counts.

Criterion	2019	2022	Today	Latest step
AI workload infrastructure	2.5	2.5	3.5	2026: 4.21: MIG-backed vGPU GA; vGPU live migration and Grace passthrough not shipped
AI platform stack	0	0	4	2025: Red Hat AI 3 on the same platform
AI-assisted operations	2.5	2.5	3.5	2026: MTV 2.12: Lightspeed in migration; autopilot (rules-based) in developer preview
Agent openness	2	2	3.5	2026: MTV MCP server; OpenShift MCP server preview with read-only default, RBAC and audit

Year by year: 2015: 2 · 2016: 5 · 2017: 5.5 · 2018: 7.0 · 2019: 7.0 · 2020: 7.0 · 2021: 7.0 · 2022: 7.0 · 2023: 10.5 · 2024: 10.5 · 2025: 12 · 2026: 14.5

AI say-do, 2023 to 2026: 14 AI items announced; 5 GA, 3 still preview, 3 pending, 0 dropped. One more shipped in part, one slipped (vGPU live migration) and one is unclear.

Red Hat has the most AI in day-to-day VM operations of the first eight: a GA assistant tailored to virtualization and AI help inside the migration tool. Its AI platform is strong but sold separately, and the GPU items it promised for 2026 (vGPU live migration, Grace passthrough) have not shipped.

Reading

Red Hat retired its classic VM product and made virtualization a feature of its Kubernetes platform, which is why it leads on Kubernetes integration and forced RHV customers to change platforms. Since 2023 it has worked through the VMware parity list (hotplug, storage migration, cross-cluster live migration, metro DR, two-node sites) and delivered most of it within a year of announcing it. What still lags is the enterprise-VM detail: x86 confidential VMs, incremental backup and vGPU live migration are all pending, and the buyer needs Kubernetes skills.

Open questions and items to re-score

VMware migration depends on Broadcom's VDDK for full speed and for vSAN sources; public downloads were removed in Aug 2026.
The Windows Server certification (SVVP) statement is commented out in the 4.22 release notes; confirm before Windows-heavy deals.
Arm support is GA in the release notes and preview in the blog; check before promising.
OpenShift 5 is expected end of 2026 to early 2027; re-score lifecycle then.