OKD: On-Prem Kubernetes Ledger 2026

Part of the On-Prem Kubernetes Ledger (edition 2026-10-13). How the scores work: methodology.

1. Snapshot

Tier: Community distribution
Owner: Community project; release engineering by Red Hat staff with the OKD Working Group; Red Hat is an IBM subsidiary since 2019
Licence model: Apache 2.0, no paid support (Red Hat does not provide commercial support of OKD)
Products scored: Origin 1.2 to 3.11 and OKD 4.5 to 5.0 core distribution; community operators count half
Latest release: OKD 5.0 (5.0.0-okd-scos.1), 2026-09-30, Kubernetes 1.36 on CentOS Stream CoreOS 10
Next signal: OKD 5.1 with SELinux mount-option labelling for Kubernetes 1.37; no date given
Archetype: Community upstream of OpenShift
Evidence grade: B. Release dates, Kubernetes minors and project events are A from GitHub and okd.io; most capability states are inferred from OpenShift and community-operator availability was not checked one by one.

Not ranked: Fails inclusion test 4: no OKD or Origin folder and no PRODUCT.yaml naming OKD in cncf/k8s-conformance (tree searched 2026-10-13); the v1.36 openshift folder certifies OpenShift 5.0.0-ec.5, not OKD.

2. Scorecard

Dimension	Score	Direction
Capability today	64.8 / 100	higher is better
Momentum since end of 2022	+4.0 points	higher is better
Credibility	15.5 / 25	higher is better
Sustainability risk	13.0 / 25	lower is better
Technical lock-in	11.0 / 25	lower is better
Integrator fit	10.5 / 20	higher is better
AI leverage	4.0 / 20	higher is better
Ledger Index	53.7 / 100	balanced weights

3. Capability by domain

Scores 0 to 5 against fixed anchors; total is weighted to 100.

Domain (weight)	2016	2019	2022	Today
Install, upgrade and lifecycle (12)	2.5	2.5	3.5	3.5
Bare metal, edge and on-prem infrastructure (10)	2.5	2.5	4	3.5
Multi-cluster and fleet management (10)	0	0	1	1
Networking (10)	2.5	3	3.5	4
Storage and data protection (10)	2.5	3	3	3.5
Security and compliance (12)	3.5	3.5	4	4
Developer platform (8)	3.5	3.5	4	4
Observability and day-2 operations (8)	3	3.5	4	4
VMs on Kubernetes (VMware exit) (10)	0	0	2	2.5
GPU and accelerator workloads (10)	0	1.5	1.5	2.5
Total / 100	39.8	45.6	60.8	64.8

Year by year: 2016: 39.8 · 2017: 41.8 · 2018: 45.6 · 2019: 45.6 · 2020: 53.8 · 2021: 53.8 · 2022: 60.8 · 2023: 60.8 · 2024: 58.6 · 2025: 60.6 · 2026: 64.8

What moved the score

Year	Domain	Change	Points	Trigger
2017	Networking	2.5 → 3	+1.0	Origin 3.7: network policy
2017	Storage and data protection	2.5 → 3	+1.0	Origin 1.4: dynamic provisioning with storage classes
2018	GPU and accelerator workloads	0 → 1.5	+3.0	Origin 3.10: device plug-ins GA
2018	Observability and day-2 operations	3 → 3.5	+0.8	Origin 3.11: Prometheus cluster monitoring
2020	Bare metal, edge and on-prem infrastructure	2.5 → 3.5	+2.0	OKD 4.5: OpenShift 4 installer on bare metal, vSphere and clouds
2020	Developer platform	3.5 → 4	+0.8	OKD 4 console developer perspective; Tekton and Argo CD only as community operators
2020	Install, upgrade and lifecycle	2.5 → 3.5	+2.4	OKD 4.5: operator-managed over-the-air updates on Fedora CoreOS
2020	Networking	3 → 3.5	+1.0	OKD 4.5: Multus and OVN-Kubernetes from OpenShift 4 core
2020	Observability and day-2 operations	3.5 → 4	+0.8	OKD 4 monitoring stack and must-gather
2020	Security and compliance	3.5 → 4	+1.2	OKD 4.5: immutable CoreOS hosts with SELinux; no FIPS-validated builds or ACS
2022	Bare metal, edge and on-prem infrastructure	3.5 → 4	+1.0	OKD 4.11: OpenShift 4 installer documented for bare metal, vSphere and clouds, single-node and compact forms from OpenShift core
2022	Multi-cluster and fleet management	0 → 1	+2.0	No Red Hat ACM; only community Open Cluster Management or Argo CD, not checked
2022	VMs on Kubernetes (VMware exit)	0 → 2	+4.0	OKD Virtualization (KubeVirt) documented for 4.11 as a community operator, half credit
2024	Bare metal, edge and on-prem infrastructure	4 → 3.5	-1.0	SCOS builds announced as x86_64 only, June 2024
2024	Install, upgrade and lifecycle	3.5 → 3	-1.2	FCOS line ended at 4.15; no stable build for nine months; 4.15 to 4.16 needed manual steps
2025	Networking	3.5 → 4	+1.0	OKD 4.19: user-defined networks GA; Gateway API not supported without Service Mesh
2025	VMs on Kubernetes (VMware exit)	2 → 2.5	+1.0	Live migration, Windows VMs and templates documented; static VM addresses on UDNs GA in 4.21
2026	GPU and accelerator workloads	1.5 → 2.5	+2.0	OKD 5.0: Kubernetes 1.36 DRA with expanded GPU allocation; NVIDIA operator support on SCOS not confirmed
2026	Install, upgrade and lifecycle	3 → 3.5	+1.2	OKD Cincinnati update service with blocked edges, September 2026; median upstream lag 159 days
2026	Storage and data protection	3 → 3.5	+1.0	OKD 5.0: volume group snapshots GA; VolumeAttributesClass GA in 4.21; no ODF

4. Direction, 2023 to 2026

Each item carries one theme and one driver (V vision, C customer need, M market window, U upstream, P portfolio).

Date	Item	Theme	Driver
2023-07	OKD CI/CD post: OKD/FCOS and OKD/SCOS built from OpenShift CI	D1 Install and lifecycle	P
2024-06	Working Group statement: rebuild on CentOS Stream CoreOS after licensed RHEL content was found	D12 Packaging and licensing	P
2024-12	OKD 4.16 and 4.17 on SCOS end a nine-month release gap; OKD Streams suspended	D1 Install and lifecycle	P
2025-05	OKD 4.19: SCOS boot images, bare metal and agent installs; user-defined networks GA	D2 Bare metal, edge and infrastructure	C
2025-09	OKD 4.20 moves the node OS to CentOS Stream 10	D1 Install and lifecycle	P
2026-09	OKD 5.0 ships Kubernetes 1.36 before OpenShift 5.0; volume group snapshots GA	D5 Storage and data protection	U
2026-09	OKD Cincinnati update service at updates.okd.io	D1 Install and lifecycle	C

Centre of gravity: Install and lifecycle (4), Packaging and licensing (1), Bare metal, edge and infrastructure (1)
Driver mix: Vision 0%, Customer need 29%, Market window 0%, Upstream 14%, Portfolio 57%

5. Credibility: 15.5 / 25

Criterion	Score	Basis
Cadence	3	Stable builds every few weeks and a minor about every four months since 2025, but no stable release from March to December 2024
Roadmap transparency	3	Public blog, release notes and Working Group meetings; no written roadmap; GitHub milestones unused since 2020
Say-do	4	6 of 7 due items shipped within 12 months (86%); OKD Streams dropped
Velocity	4	Inherits OpenShift features each minor, minus Red Hat-only operators
Lifecycle stability	1.5	No support window; OS switched FCOS to SCOS (2024) and to CentOS Stream 10 (2025); 4.16 only a pass-through

Say-do record, 2023 to 2026: 2023-2026: 8 items from okd.io posts and early-candidate builds; 7 due, 6 shipped within 12 months (SCOS nightlies on time, first SCOS release in 6.5 months, 4.20 to 5.0 each about 4 months after the first candidate); OKD Streams suspended; SELinux mount labelling for 5.1 not yet due.

6. Sustainability risk: 13.0 / 25 (lower is better)

Criterion	Score	Basis
Maintainer concentration	4	Builds and release notes by Red Hat engineers; okd-project/okd has 36 contributors; Working Group co-chairs run the community side
Backer health	1.5	Red Hat funds CI and hosts the new update service on its AppSRE platform; Red Hat is profitable under IBM
Licence-change risk	2	Apache 2.0, but RHEL content found in 2023 forced a rebuild on CentOS Stream; depends on Red Hat keeping sources open
Abandonment signs	2.5	Nine-month release halt 2024 and OKD Streams suspended; since 2025 regular releases, OKD 5.0 and Cincinnati
Security response	3	No project advisories; reports go to Red Hat Product Security; fixes come only as rebuilt stable builds, none for nine months in 2024

Security record of the product itself: No KEV entry and no CVSS 9+ flaw in OKD's own components 2023-2026 (KEV 2026.10.08, NVD); OpenShift's 2025-2026 criticals are in ACM, OpenShift AI and OpenShift Virtualization, which OKD does not ship. No deduction.

7. Technical lock-in: 11.0 / 25 (lower is better)

Criterion	Score	Basis
Formats	2.5	Same OpenShift APIs as OCP: routes, SCCs, builds, image streams; not itself CNCF certified
Export path	2	Moving to OpenShift needs no API changes; leaving for other Kubernetes is the same work as leaving OpenShift
Stack coupling	3.5	OKD's own CoreOS (FCOS, now SCOS 10) required on every node; OVN-Kubernetes
Hardware / cloud coupling	1	Any x86_64 hardware or hypervisor, offline mirroring; builds x86_64 only since 2024
Skills and tooling coupling	2	OpenShift skills transfer directly

8. Integrator fit: 10.5 / 20

Criterion	Score	Basis
Partner programme openness	0.5	No partner programme or commercial support
Multi-tenancy and self-service	4	Projects, RBAC and network isolation; user-defined networks GA in 4.19
API and infrastructure-as-code	3	Same installer, Ansible and Cluster API underpinnings as OpenShift; OKD Ansible collection not re-checked
Skills and certification	3	Red Hat OpenShift certifications apply; no OKD-specific certification

9. AI leverage: 4.0 / 20

Strand	Today	Latest step
AI workload support	0.5	2023: No AI-specific platform features beyond Kubernetes; Kueue or LeaderWorkerSet only as community add-ons
AI platform stack	1.5	2023: Open Data Hub, the community upstream of OpenShift AI, runs on OKD as a community add-on (half credit)
AI-assisted operations	0	2023: No AI assistant; OpenShift Lightspeed is a Red Hat subscription operator
Agent openness	2	2016: Documented Kubernetes and OpenShift REST APIs and oc CLI; no official MCP server

AI say-do: 0 announced by the project 2023-2026. OKD offers no AI assistant or MCP server; AI platforms come only from community add-ons such as Open Data Hub.

10. Reading

OKD is Red Hat's community build of OpenShift, now rebuilt on CentOS Stream CoreOS so it can be shipped without RHEL content. The record shows a nine-month halt in 2024 and repeated OS switches, followed since 2025 by a steady rhythm, Kubernetes 1.36 in OKD 5.0 ahead of OpenShift, and a real update service. Buyers get OpenShift's core for free but no support window, no Red Hat add-ons such as ACM, ODF or Gateway API support, and a project that depends on Red Hat's engineers.

11. Open questions and evidence caveats

Not listed in cncf/k8s-conformance under its own name, so it fails inclusion test 4 (rank=False).
Community-operator availability on OKD (KubeVirt, Open Cluster Management, Rook, OADP, NVIDIA GPU Operator) not checked one by one; fleet, storage, virt and accel scores rest on that.
ARM support since the 2024 SCOS switch not re-checked (announced x86_64 only).
Say-do items are mostly early-candidate builds turning stable, a weak form of promise.